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Peggy Brinkmann, FCAS, MAAA

Consulting Actuary
San Francisco, CA, US

Tel: +1 415 3943726

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Professional Designations

  • Fellow, Casualty Actuarial Society
  • Member, American Academy of Actuaries

Education

  • MBA, Santa Clara University
  • BA, Mathematics and Education, Washington University in St. Louis

Current Responsibility

Peggy is a consulting actuary with the Property and Casualty practice in Milliman's San Francisco office. She joined the firm in 2012.

Experience

Peggy's experience is primarily in applying predictive modeling to personal lines property and casualty insurance. Her expertise includes:

  • Statistics and machine learning, including generalized linear models, Bayesian models, survival models, decision trees, and clustering
  • Data mining processes, including data preparation, feature extraction, model building, and model evaluation
  • Developing risk scores with external data sources such as credit reports, vehicle characteristics, and telematics devices

Peggy has developed a variety of predictive models for profitability, claim risk, retention, and improving efficiency in underwriting and claims processes. These models include:

  • Telematics: Developing a telematics-based driving risk score for a large auto insurer.
  • Vehicle prediction model: Developing a risk score based on the characteristics of vehicles, such as horsepower, weight, and Electronic Stability Control
  • Undisclosed driver pursuit: Identifying policies most likely to have undisclosed youthful operators
  • Driver training programs: Measuring efficacy of various programs claiming to reduce crash risk for elderly and teen drivers
  • Household retention: Preparing a 360-degree view of customers using transactional and survey data, and identifying signals of defection risk
  • Lifetime value modeling: Estimating the expected future economic value of a household, including potential value of future cross-sales.
  • By-peril homeowners rating: Exploring homeowners rating by peril and fitting multivariate rating models
  • Mortality data mining: Mining hundreds of auto insurance variables for predictors of mortality risk
  • Medical claim fraud: Modeling medical provider fraud using medical billing data

Prior to joining Milliman, Peggy was director of analytics and insights at the Allstate Research and Planning Center.

Presentations and publications

Peggy has published articles and given presentations on big data, data preparation for predictive modeling, and trends in analytics and modeling.

  • Work at Milliman

    • “I was offered a chance to come in, shake things up, create something."
    Work at Milliman