Catastrophe modeling


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Milliman's European non-life team assists clients in gathering and coordinating information on catastrophe bonds. This enables the creation of a comprehensive performance measurement tool to support investment decisions.

Valuing catastrophe bonds and similar insurance-linked securities is a complex process. The available data in a public offering memorandum generally allow precise re-modelling of such securities, from the ground up. But sometimes it is sufficient to simply understand the expected bond performance.

Often, organizations struggle with how to properly assess the interplay of natural catastrophe exposures between internal divisions and across an entire company. We excel in establishing efficient processes for effective modelling of a portfolio's risk exposure. We have assisted numerous government entities, insurers, reinsurers, and other financial institutions in developing advanced modelling platforms for assessing catastrophe risk.

Our experienced team includes professionals with specialised knowledge in actuarial science, risk management, statistics, systems programming, and financial modelling—particularly models employing Monte Carlo stochastic simulations.

Client reaps benefits from optimisation

A manager at a small catastrophe fund engaged Milliman to help optimise its portfolio, which included catastrophe bonds. The bonds offered attractive returns, but also came with the risk that investors might lose money if a triggering catastrophe occurred.

Milliman worked with the fund manager to create a customised simulation tool to optimise the fund’s portfolio of insurance-linked securities, ensuring the mix of bonds met the risk requirements of the fund. In addition to offering more sophisticated insight into the portfolio's true risk profile, the fund manager used the tool to more thoroughly explain the details and peculiarities of this asset class to potential investors.