Forecasting and predictive modeling


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Milliman’s India office has helped governments and other healthcare research and funding agencies analyze health insurance utilization and cost trends. We are frequently asked by these agencies to help them analyze the Indian health insurance data on rural and social insurance schemes. Our analyses have helped them in budgeting and planning health insurance costs. We have also worked with various non-government organizations and micro-insurance organizations, providing analysis and modeling health insurance claims experience.

Forecasting social health insurance cost

A global healthcare research and funding agency had undertaken a study to forecast the cost of government-run social health insurance schemes for the next five years. Milliman assisted the agency from the data collection phase to the final health financing cost projection for the various schemes. The projection involved an in-depth understanding of the schemes run in various states and for various insured groups in India. We were able to provide expert opinion to our client due to our up-to-date research and close monitoring of the schemes. Our analysis and modeling also helped the agency to study the impact of various changes to the scheme benefit designs on the projected future cost.

Feasibility and budgeting analysis of a state run health insurance scheme

An Indian state government wanted to roll out a scheme similar to another state but with differences in benefit design and coverage. Based on an analysis and modeling of the experience of the existing scheme and our understanding of the expenses for the new coverage, we provided an analysis of the proposed scheme. We also provided the state with cost projections under a number of options. Our analyses helped the state in determining the benefit design to offer and cost projections for the next few years.

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