Milliman quarterly statistics data, Second quarter 2016

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By Derek Newton, Gary Wells | 17 September 2016

The UK economy grew by 0.6% over the second quarter of 2016, higher than the 0.4% of both the forecast and the previous quarter’s growth rate. Industrial production grew by 2.1%, its largest increase since 1999, while construction output shrank by 0.4%. The result of the United Kingdom’s referendum on membership in the European Union, which was announced at the very end of the quarter, will (eventually) lead to Article 50 being triggered and the countdown to the UK leaving the EU will begin.

The euro area as a whole expanded by 0.3% in the second quarter of 2016, in line with market expectations but lower than the previous quarter’s growth of 0.6%. Germany grew 0.4%, in line with market expectations, after growing 0.7% in the previous quarter. The French economy stagnated, growing at 0.0%, compared with the 0.3% forecast and the 0.7% growth in the previous quarter. The Italian economy also showed no overall growth, compared with the 0.3% growth rate of the previous quarter and market expectations of 0.2%. Elsewhere in the euro area, Spain grew by 0.7%, after 0.8% growth in each of the past three quarters, while Greece grew by 0.3% following a revised -0.1% growth figure for the first quarter of 2016.

The U.S. economy’s second quarter annualised growth rate of 1.2% was an improvement over the first quarter growth rate of 0.8%, but below the market expectations of 2.0%. Consumer expenditure was the main growth driver while investment and government expenditure both declined. Exports grew after declining for the previous three quarters while imports shrank, leading to net exports contributing positively to GDP.

China grew by 1.8% in the second quarter of 2016, higher than both the 1.6% forecast and the previous quarterly growth rate of 1.2%. The transition of the Chinese economy from a manufacturing-based to a consumption-based economy continues.

This report contains statistics data for markets around the world.