Anders Larson
FSA, MAAA
Principal & Consulting Actuary
Indianapolis, IN, US
Anders Larson is a principal and consulting actuary with Milliman’s Indianapolis office. Anders provides actuarial consulting services to state Medicaid agencies, commercial and Medicaid health plans, self-funded groups, and provider organizations such as ACOs.
Experience
His experience includes but is not limited to:
- Financial projections
- Capitation rate setting
- Fiscal estimates for proposed policy change
- Benchmarking of experience
- Analysis of shared risk agreements
- Incurred but not reported reserve estimates
- Research studies using large public data sources
Since 2012, he has been significantly involved with provider payment reform and value-based reimbursement, working on behalf of private payers, state governments, ACOs, and other provider organizations. He has a wide range of experience with predictive analytics applications, from traditional risk adjustment models to modern machine learning algorithms. From 2015 to 2018, Anders has served on the Society of Actuaries’ Predictive Analytics and Futurism section council. He was the section’s chair in 2018.
Publications and Presentations
- Ten questions providers should be asking about their value-based contracts and the COVID-19 pandemic. Milliman white paper (May 2020).
- Considerations for predictive modeling in insurance applications. Society of Actuaries Research Report (June 2019).
- “Pathways to Success” MSSP Final rule: Winners and losers. Milliman white paper (February 2019).
- Seven key challenges for Medicaid states considering alternative payment models. Milliman white paper (January 2019).
- “Pathways to Success” MSSP Proposed rule: Assignment changes to identification of E&M Services in skilled nursing facilities. Milliman white paper (October 2018).
- “Pathways to Success” MSSP Proposed rule: Winners and losers. Milliman white paper (October 2018).
- What predictive analytics can tell us about key drivers of MSSP results. Milliman white paper (September 2017).
- Performance of skilled nursing facilities for the Medicare population. Milliman white paper (December 2016).
- Benefits Perspectives: Introduction to shared savings arrangements and ACOs. Milliman white paper (September 2015).
- Challenges with measuring savings in shared savings arrangements. Milliman white paper (March 2015).
Industry Presentations
- Identifying the Best VBC Model/Track for Your Organization, NAACOS 2021 Boot Camp (January 2021).
- Using member-level predictive models to calculate IBNR reserves, Actuaries Club of the Southwest Spring Conference (June 2019).
- Critical Point podcast, Episode 11: Shea and Anders talk blockchain (Part 3): Insurance applications. Milliman podcast (May 2019).
- Managing ACO Composition to Maximize Shared Savings, NAACOS Spring 2019 Conference (April 2019).
- Seven key challenges for Medicaid states considering alternative payment models. Milliman webinar (February 2019).
- Critical Point podcast, Episode 3: Shea and Anders talk blockchain (Part 1) Milliman podcast (January 2019).
- Critical Point podcast, Episode 9: Shea and Anders talk blockchain (Part 2) Milliman podcast (October 2018).
- Becoming Accountable – Achieving Success in Population Health (panelist), Indiana Healthcare Executives Network Program (February 2018).
- Innovative Uses of Risk Adjustment, Society of Actuaries Health Meeting (June 2017).
- Measuring and Benchmarking SNF Performance Metrics for ACOs and MA Plans, MCOL Webinar (March 2017).
- Case Studies in Value-Based Care, Society of Actuaries Health Meeting (June 2015).
- What Do ACOs Really Care About?, Tri-State Actuarial Club Annual Conference (September 2014).
Professional Designations
- Fellow, Society of Actuaries
- Member, American Academy of Actuaries
Education
- BA, Mathematics, Wake Forest University
Publications
Read their latest work
Article
Savings with an asterisk: The hidden math of Medicaid enrollment movement
17 March 2026 - by Anders Larson, Andrew Badaracco, Michael Kornhauser
Using our interactive tool, see how changes to Medicaid managed care coverage policies under new eligibility and enrollment requirements could impact total cost of care.
Article
Applying an equity lens to Medicaid risk adjustment
20 December 2024 - by Anders Larson, Erica S. Baird (formerly, Erica Rode), Libby Bunzli
We discuss how state Medicaid agencies could wield their financing and policy tools thoughtfully and proactively to address health inequities.
Article
Using machine learning to identify the key drivers of MSSP results: Performance year 2022 update
05 April 2024 - by Anders Larson, Cory Gusland, Austin Kennedy, Hayden Chromy
In our third performance driver study of the Medicare Shared Savings Program, we identify regional efficiency as an important characteristic for ACO total savings.
Article
The winding road to value: Understanding VBC dynamics in each market
12 February 2024 - by Anders Larson, Brent Jensen, Blaine Miller, Simon Moody
As providers increasingly adopt value-based care for reimbursement, it’s important they know the dynamics of each market, from Medicare to commercial to Medicaid.
Article
What predictive analytics can tell us about key drivers of MSSP results: 2021 update
04 August 2021 - by Anders Larson, Mackenzie Egan, Robert Richards, Cory Gusland
We analyzed recent MSSP results for ACOs, and found that drivers of recent success are quite different from our report in 2015, and in some cases the opposite.
Article
Ten questions providers should be asking about their value-based contracts and the COVID-19 pandemic
19 May 2020 - by Cory Gusland, Anders Larson, Brian A. Sweatman
For any given provider organization, the impact of COVID-19 on its value-based contracts will depend largely on certain actuarial, legal, and strategic aspects of each agreement.
Article
プレディクティブ・モデリングの保険への応用に関する考察(英語版のみ）
25 June 2019 - by Eileen S. Burns, Anders Larson, Robert Meyer, Zohair Motiwalla, Guy Yollin
プレディクティブ・モデリングを関連分野のアクチュアリーの実務に利用する最良の方法とは？
Article
Considerations for predictive modeling in insurance applications
25 June 2019 - by Eileen S. Burns, Anders Larson, Robert Meyer, Zohair Motiwalla, Guy Yollin
What are the best ways to implement predictive modeling into relevant areas of actuarial practice?
Article
クリティカルポイント・エピソード11：ブロックチェーン（パート3）：保険への応用 (英語版のみ)
08 May 2019 - by Anders Larson, Shea Parkes
複数回シリーズの第3回目は、ミリマンのShea ParkesとAnders Larsonがブロックチェーンテクノロジーの保険への応用の可能性について、その弱点もあわせて論じます。
Article
Critical Point Episode 11: Shea and Anders talk blockchain (Part 3): Insurance applications
08 May 2019 - by Anders Larson, Shea Parkes
The third in a multi-part series, Milliman’s Shea Parkes and Anders Larson discuss potential insurance applications for blockchain technology, along with some of the drawbacks.