April 2025 markets saw unusually large swings in performance but ended on a slight up note compared to the end of March 2025. As a result, the estimated funded status of the 100 largest U.S. public pension plans ticked up from 79.5% as of March 31, 2025, to 79.6% as of April 30, 2025, as measured by the Milliman 100 Public Pension Funding Index (PPFI).
Figure 1: PPFI funded ratio
We have projected the aggregate funded status forward from April 30, 2025, to April 30, 2026, under three scenarios. The baseline scenario assumes each plan’s future investment returns equal that plan’s current reported interest rate assumption (median rate = 7.0% in this study). The “optimistic” and “pessimistic” scenarios assume each plan’s investment returns are 7% higher and lower, respectively, than that plan’s current reported interest rate assumption.
Figure 2: PPFI funded ratio with projections
During April, the deficit between the estimated plan assets and liabilities remained unchanged at $1.340 trillion throughout the month. In aggregate, we estimate the PPFI plans experienced investment returns of 0.4% in April, with individual plans’ estimated returns ranging from -1.8% to 1.4%. The Milliman 100 PPFI asset value increased from $5.198 trillion as of March 31, 2025, to $5.213 trillion as of April 30, 2025. During April, the plans gained market value of approximately $24 billion, which was offset by a net negative cash flow of approximately $9 billion.
Figure 3: PPFI investment returns
The total pension liability (TPL) continues to grow and stood at an estimated $6.553 trillion as of April 30, 2025, up from $6.538 trillion as of March 31, 2025. Just as pension assets grow over time with investment income and shrink over time as benefits are paid, so too does the TPL grow over time with interest and shrink as benefits are paid. The TPL also grows as active members accrue pension benefits.
Figure 4: PPFI funded status
April’s slightly positive performance did not move any plans across either the 60% or 90% funded ratio mark. As of April 30, 2025, 25 plans were still more than 90% funded, while 12 plans were still less than 60% funded.
Figure 5: Funded ratios at April 30, 2025
About the Public Pension Funding Index
This update is an estimate based on Milliman’s 2024 Public Pension Funding Study and was updated for market returns from June 30, 2024, to April 30, 2025. The 2024 annual study encompasses adjustments made as of June 30, 2024, and reflects updated publicly available asset and liability information gathered for the annual study.