Key climate factors—such as extreme temperatures and air pollution—significantly affect health and mortality. Average temperature alone is insufficient for modeling these effects. This study focused on the Netherlands introduces an advanced methodology for deriving mortality scenarios from conventional climate projections, offering a more comprehensive assessment of future risks. Projections based on KNMI Research scenarios suggest major changes by 2100.

Key findings

• Summer temperatures under a high-emission, dry-summer (Hd) scenario are projected to rise significantly, nearing 22°C by century’s end.
• Rising minimum temperatures highlight the need to assess their impact, given the cumulative effects of sustained nighttime heat on mortality.
• The number of tropical days (maximum temperatures exceeding 30°C) could rise to 50, up from fewer than 10 now, sharply raising health risks from prolonged heat exposure, with direct consequences for mortality and public health.
• Under the Hd scenario, life expectancy at age 65 in the Netherlands is projected to be 0.7 years lower than in the baseline scenario by 2050.