In recent years, new treatment options for type-2 diabetes and obesity have resulted in substantial changes in clinical guidelines and prescribing patterns. Commercial payers have experienced a recent surge in the utilization of glucagon-like-peptide-1 (GLP-1) medications. Also, approved indications are expanding, including those for sleep apnea and cardiovascular conditions. This white paper provides a framework for building a long-range forecast and can help employers covering these drugs understand how trends associated with these drugs may change over time.
Highlights
- Methodology: We developed a Markov model where each state represents a combination of disease status and whether the enrollee is currently taking GLP-1 medications.
- Trends: Based on assumptions in the paper, utilization will continue rising from 2025 through 2027, and then stabilize between 2028 and 2030.
- Long-range forecast: We consider a range of external factors, including uncertainties we may be able to predict, as well as those that are unforeseeable.
- Future results: We estimate that 7.9% to 12.7% of the total commercial population may be using GLP-1s for weight loss in the distant future.
- Estimating future costs: We provide some ranges to illustrate the potential impact to plan sponsors in the distant future, when generics are expected to be widely available.
- Drugs included in this study: Descriptions of GLP-1 receptor agonists and anti-obesity GLP-1 receptor agonists.
- Data sources: Milliman’s proprietary health research databases.