Climate Risk Modeling
Day 1 of the MCRF 2021 focused on anticipating, measuring, and communicating climate risk.
Unprecedented, predictable, and uninsurable: The risks posed by climate change
Hear opening remarks from Nancy Watkins, chair of the Milliman Climate Resilience Forum, on the first day of MCRF 2021. Then, Spencer Glendon of Probable Futures provides a powerful presentation on the dramatic impacts of climate change on weather, agriculture, catastrophic events, and civilization itself. These insights are clear and essential for every organization.
Presenters
Spencer Glendon
Founder, Probable Futures
Nancy Watkins
Principal and Consulting Actuary, Milliman
Mind the gap: How cat models need to evolve
Watch leading scientists and modelers in a discussion of the gap between catastrophe (cat) models used by the insurance industry and physics-based climate risk models, the implications of the gap for homeowners, investors, insurers, and reinsurers, and the path to a better solution.
Presenters
Adam Sobel
Professor of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University
Dag Lohmann
CEO and Co-Founder, KatRisk
Tom Larsen
Principal, Content Strategy, CoreLogic Insurance and Spatial Solutions
Philippe Trahan
Director, Insurance-Linked Securities, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan
Accelerating risk insight for countries, communities, and individuals that need it most
Leaders of the Insurance Development Forum (IDF) discuss how the industry can help people and organizations respond to climate change. Topics range from how the Net Zero Underwriters Alliance is hoping to align insurer activities with the Paris Agreement, how the IDF open-source risk modeling platform will help organizations respond to climate risks, and how the property and casualty (P&C) business model is changing in response to the climate crisis.
Presenters
Denis Duverne
Chair of Insurance Development Forum Steering Committee and Chairman of the Board, AXA
Ekhosuehi Iyahen
Secretary General, Insurance Development Forum
Ken Mungan
Chairman, Milliman
Sequencing risk models to answer complex questions
When modeling the financial impacts of climate change, the analysis doesn’t stop at property damage estimates. Learn how climate, catastrophe, and financial models can be used to measure complex financial impacts such as property-value changes and mortgage performance.
Presenters
David D. Evans
Consulting Actuary, Milliman
Leighton Hunley
Financial Consultant, Milliman
Brandon Katz
Executive Vice President, KatRisk
The state of climate science: Impacts on the insurance industry
Ernst Rauch, chief climate- and geoscientist at Munich Re details market drivers of climate action including climate risk, investor and consumer behavior, policy and regulation, and increasing understanding of the need for resilience. Rauch details the actions needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Presenters
Ernst Rauch
Chief Climate and Geo Scientist, Munich Re
Large-scale examination of the respiratory effects of recent wildfires
Discover the relationships among wildfires, air pollution, and human health. Using extensive medical claims data, the presenters discuss respiratory and cardiac effects of recent major U.S. fires.
Presenters
Molly Barth
GIS Analyst, Milliman
Melody Craff
Director, Strategic Analytic Services and Research, Milliman
Cody Webb
Principal and Consulting Actuary, Milliman
The role of Big Tech in communicating climate risk
Big Tech can help business leaders make the case for acting on climate resilience—and back up their vision with data. Learn about challenges and opportunities when it comes to incorporating climate risk as part of the corporate business strategy both within and beyond the boardroom.
Presenters
Sarah Russell
Lead, X, the moonshot factory
Ashley Schulten
Managing Director, Head of Responsible Investing for Global Fixed Income, BlackRock
Soren Kaplan
Managing Principal, InnovationPoint
Closing Remarks
Milliman Principal and Consulting Actuary Nancy Watkins wraps up day 1 of the Milliman Climate Resilience Forum.
Presenter
Nancy Watkins
Principal and Consulting Actuary, Milliman
Government and Society
Day 2 of MCRF 2021 delved into policy, regulation, and action to address climate resilience across local, state, and federal government.
Welcome to day 2
Nancy Watkins, chair of the Milliman Climate Resilience Forum, introduces the second day of presentations, which focus on the role of government and society in climate risk.
Presenters
Nancy Watkins
Principal and Consulting Actuary, Milliman
Reevaluating the policy of building in harm's way
This dialogue focuses on the drivers of extreme wildfire risk in California and what stakeholders can do about it. The panelists discuss how development in wildland-urban interfaces is driven by real-estate economics, housing shortages, and policy decisions, as well as challenges to sound underwriting for fire risk.
Presenters
Alice Hill
David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment, Council on Foreign Relations
Michael Wara
Director of the Climate and Energy Policy Program, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment
How climate risk is influencing financial regulators
Learn how regulators and mortgage experts are beginning to incorporate climate risk into financial regulations and helping define a path forward to climate resilience.
Presenters
Steven Rothstein
Managing Director, Ceres Accelerator for Sustainable Capital Markets
Michael Fratantoni
Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research and Industry Technology, Mortgage Bankers Association
Michela Barba
Co-lead, Natural Disaster Risk Working Group, Federal Housing Finance Agency
Ken Bjurstrom
Principal, Financial Consultant, Milliman
Federal and national perspectives on climate equality and resilience
Explore how government, academia, and not for profit organizations are working with business leaders to embed health, equity, and resilience into action directed at climate change. Learn about the relationship between public health, workforce health, and community insurability, as well as models to optimize investment and measure returns in ways that account for sustainability and resilience.
Presenters
Samantha Medlock
Senior Counsel, U.S. House Select Committee on The Climate Crisis
Representative Harold Mitchell Jr.
State Representative, South Carolina House of Representatives
Adrienne Hollis
Senior Climate Justice and Health Scientist for the Climate and Energy Program, Union of Concerned Scientists
Anna Marandi
Program Manager, Climate and Sustainability, Sustainable Cities Institute
Reducing disaster suffering
Michael Grimm, Assistant Administrator of Risk Management at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), makes the case for the value of flood insurance, risk assessment tools, and pre-disaster mitigation grants in helping individuals and communities suffer less and recover faster. He covers FEMA’s ambitious three-year plan to improve equity, flood insurance coverage, mitigation investment, and post-disaster program delivery.
Presenters
Michael Grimm
Assistant Administrator for Risk Management, FEMA
Climate resilience strategies for insurance supervisors around the globe
Anna Sweeney, Chair of the UN-convened Sustainable Insurance Forum, discusses how the agency is leading the industry in responding to sustainability and climate-change challenges. She also discusses what’s next in the realm of supervisory activities as the pace of change continues to increase.
Presenters
Anna Sweeney
Executive Director of Insurance, Bank of England
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U.S. insurance regulatory climate leadership
Insurance commissioners from California, Louisiana, Maryland, and Washington state discuss the implications of risk transfer from the private sector to government, as well as how regulators and insurers can work together to promote better land-use and building codes and improve insurance availability and affordability.
Presenters
Kathleen Birrane
Insurance Commissioner, Maryland Department of Insurance
Jim Donelon
Insurance Commissioner, Louisiana Department of Insurance
Don Griffin
Department Vice President, Policy, Research and International, American Property Casualty Insurance Association
Mike Kreidler
Insurance Commissioner, Washington State Office of the Insurance Commissioner
Ricardo Lara
Insurance Commissioner, California Department of Insurance
Nancy Watkins
Principal and Consulting Actuary, Milliman
Closing remarks
Nancy Watkins, chair of the Milliman Climate Resilience Forum, ends the day of sessions focused on industry and government.
Presenters
Nancy Watkins
Principal and Consulting Actuary, Milliman
Business and Finance
Leaders from international financial institutions, insurers, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) discuss shifting investment strategies and priorities regarding climate change.
Welcome to day 3
Nancy Watkins, Chair of the Milliman Climate Resilience Forum, introduces day 3 of the 2021 Milliman Climate Resilience Forum, focused on business and finance.
Presenters
Nancy Watkins
Principal and Consulting Actuary, Milliman
How international organizations are addressing climate risk
Experts from the World Bank, the United Nations, Global Parametrics, and Milliman discuss how global organizations are sharing lessons learned, linking infrastructure development to climate risk, and using “forecast financing” to deliver climate risk payments to developing nations before events occur.
Presenters
Olivier Mahul
Practice Manager, Crisis and Disaster Risk Finance, World Bank
Abhisheik Dhawan
Sustainable Finance and Partnership Specialist, United Nations Capital Development Fund
Jerry Skees
Founder and Chief Strategy Officer, Global Parametrics
Michael McCord
Managing Director, MicroInsurance Centre, Milliman
Climate strategy for insurers
Sylvain Vanston from AXA, a global insurer with operations in 57 countries, discusses the company’s climate-change journey and lessons learned with Milliman’s Neil Cantle. Learn how the organization’s ambition and emphasis changed over time, how it engages its people in the resilience conversation, and the opportunities in responding effectively to climate change.
Presenters
Sylvain Vanston
Group Head of Climate Change and Biodiversity, AXA
Neil Cantle
Principal and Consulting Actuary, Milliman
Climate change: From emerging risk to real life danger
Experts from Swiss Re, one of the world's leading providers of reinsurance and insurance, discuss how its resiliency indices help it understand climate’s impact on health, mortality, and natural catastrophe insurance, with an emphasis on health and flood coverage.
Presenters
Samantha Dunn
Head of the Natural Catastrophe Protection Gap Initiative and Reinsurance Sustainability Co-lead, Swiss RE
Yommy Chiu
Senior Product Manager, Swiss RE
Rich Moyer
Principal and MedInsight Chief Product Officer, Milliman
Nancy Watkins
Principal and Consulting Actuary, Milliman
Life-insurer innovations within climate change
This dialogue between Don Kanak, chairman of Prudential Insurance Growth Markets, and Ken Mungan, chairman of Milliman, ranges widely over topics at the intersection of life insurance and climate change. It includes ways to design life and health insurance products to protect customers affected by climate change, as well as the role of insurers as major institutional investors with the power to accelerate sustainability and resilience.
Presenters
Don Kanak
Chairman, Prudential Insurance Growth Markets and Chairman, EU-ASEAN Business Council
Ken Mungan
Chairman, Milliman
Rich Moyer
Principal and MedInsight Chief Product Officer, Milliman
Climate risk management: The path forward
Timothy Judge, Vice President of Climate Impact at Fannie Mae, provides a pragmatic approach for building climate-risk management capabilities in the financial services industry. He covers criteria for defining mature risk-management capabilities, along with key challenges, and next steps.
Presenter
Timothy Judge
Vice President of Climate Impact, Fannie Mae
Real estate and municipal bond investor perspective
Panelists from Morgan Stanley, Breckenridge Capital Advisors, Heitman, and the Urban Land Institute discuss how today’s investment strategies incorporate climate risks, as well as the need for increased transparency through qualitative and quantitative metrics.
Presenters
Mona Benisi
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley
Tim Coffin
Senior Vice President, Breckinridge Capital Advisors
Laura Craft
Senior Vice President, Head of Global ESG Strategy, Heitman
Billy Grayson
Executive Director, Center for Sustainability and Economic Performance, Urban Land Institute
Closing remarks
Nancy Watkins, chair of the Milliman Climate Resilience Forum, provides a wrap-up to the conference and highlights key themes and actions.
Presenter
Nancy Watkins
Principal and Consulting Actuary, Milliman