Mortality assumptions for long-term care have been a moving target. And the length of the assumed selection period has been increasing. When using an all-lives mortality assumption, is the projection missing important details about the appropriate mortality level? This article provides insight into the elusive ultimate mortality level by developing an assumption using a combination of modeling techniques.

This article originally appeared in the August 2016 issue of Long-Term Care News, a newsletter published by the Society of Actuaries.